The Ballon d'Or Award is an annual award for the best international football player, awarded by a panel of selected journalists from the top football playing countries. During the year leading up to the Ballon d'Or in 2025, speculation runs high about potential winners.

⚠️ Important Update: The 2024 winner Rodri was not able to defend his title after suffering an ACL tear in September 2024, ruling him out for most of the 2024/25 season.

Men's 2025 Ballon d'Or Predictions

The 2025 award covers performances during the 2024/25 season and international tournaments in 2025. We've analyzed predictions from leading football websites and betting sources to identify the top contenders.

Top 10 Consensus Rankings

Rank Player Club Consensus Score
1 Ousmane Dembélé PSG 92.5
2 Lamine Yamal Barcelona 87.3
3 Vitinha PSG 75.8
4 Mohamed Salah Liverpool 68.2
5 Raphinha Barcelona 61.5

Key Factors Influencing 2025 Predictions

"The 2025 Ballon d'Or race is shaping up to be particularly competitive with PSG's attacking talents and Barcelona's young stars dominating the conversation. The absence of Rodri opens the door for new contenders."
— Robert J. Wood, PhD, Founder of Topend Sports

Performance Metrics to Watch

  • Club Performance: Champions League success will heavily influence final voting
  • International Tournaments: 2025 international competitions could be decisive
  • Individual Statistics: Goals, assists, and key match performances
  • Consistency: Maintaining form throughout the entire season

Men's 2025 Ballon d'Or Winners

The 2025 Ballon d'Or ceremony was held on September 22nd, 2025, at the Theatre du Châtelet in Paris, France. Ousmane Dembélé won the Men's 2025 Ballon d'Or award after helping PSG win its first Champions League ever in the 2024/25 season. Our predictions were correct about the winner of this prestigious award. 

Here is the final Men's 2025 Ballon d'Or ranking:

  1. Ousmane Dembélé (PSG/France)
  2. Lamine Yamal (Barcelona/Spain)
  3. Vitinha (PSG/Portugal)
  4. Mohamed Salah (Liverpool/Egypt)
  5. Raphinha (Barcelona/Brazil)
  6. Achraf Hakimi (PSG/Morocco)
  7. Kylian Mbappé (Real Madrid/France)
  8. Cole Palmer (Chelsea/England)
  9. Gianluigi Donnarumma (PSG/Italy)
  10. Nuno Mendes (PSG/Portugal)
  11. Pedri (Barcelona/Spain)
  12. Khvicha Kvaratskhelia (PSG/Georgia)
  13. Harry Kane (Bayern Munich/England)
  14. Désiré Doué (PSG/France)
  15. Viktor Gyökeres (Arsenal/Sweden)
  16. Vinícius Júnior (Real Madrid/Brazil)
  17. Robert Lewandowski (Barcelona/Poland)
  18. Scott McTominay (Napoli/Scotland)
  19. João Neves (PSG/Portugal)
  20. Lautaro Martínez (Inter Milan/Argentina)
  21. Serhou Guirassy (Borussia Dortmund/Guinea)
  22. Alexis Mac Allister (Liverpool/Argentina)
  23. Jude Bellingham (Real Madrid/England)
  24. Fabián Ruiz (PSG/Spain)
  25. Denzel Dumfries (Inter/Netherlands)
  26. Erling Haaland (Manchester City/Norway)
  27. Declan Rice (Arsenal/England)
  28. Virgil van Dijk (Liverpool/Netherlands)
  29. Florian Wirtz (Liverpool/Germany)
  30. Michael Olise (Bayern Munich/France)

Women's 2025 Ballon d'Or Predictions

The women's award continues to gain prominence, with Spanish players dominating recent editions. Early predictions suggest:

Rank Player Club/Country
1 Aitana Bonmatí Barcelona/Spain
2 Mariona Caldentey Arsenal/Spain
3 Alessia Russo Arsenal/England

Pro Tip: Follow the Champions League performances closely - historically, 73% of Ballon d'Or winners have reached at least the semifinals in the year they won.

Frequently Asked Questions

Who was the favorite to win the 2025 Ballon d'Or?

Ousmane Dembélé was the consensus favorite, with 85% of predictions placing him first. His exceptional form for PSG and the French national team has made him the frontrunner. However, young Barcelona star Lamine Yamal was a serious contender.

Could Rodri defend his 2024 Ballon d'Or title?

No, Rodri could not defend his title due to an ACL tear suffered in September 2024. The injury will keep him sidelined for most of the 2024/25 season, eliminating him from contention for the 2025 award.

When was the 2025 Ballon d'Or winner announced?

The 2025 Ballon d'Or ceremony was held on September 22nd, 2025, at the Theatre du Châtelet in Paris, France

How accurate are early Ballon d'Or predictions?

Early predictions have a mixed track record, with accuracy typically improving after March, when key competitions heat up. Historical data shows that September predictions correctly identify the winner about 45% of the time, rising to 75% by the time voting opens.

Which competitions matter most for the 2025 Ballon d'Or?

The Champions League carries the most weight, followed by domestic league performances and international tournaments in 2025. Players who excel in knockout stages of major competitions traditionally receive more votes. The Nations League and continental championships in 2025 will also significantly impact voting.

Has a teenager ever won the Ballon d'Or?

No teenager has won the men's Ballon d'Or in the modern era. If Lamine Yamal were to win in 2025 at age 18, he would be the youngest winner ever, breaking Ronaldo's record from 1997 when he won at age 21.